You are hereHome › College of Arts, Social Sciences & Humanities (CASSH) › Reubin O'D. Askew Department of Government › Cuzán, Alfred › Fiscal policy as a forecasting factor in presidential elections Style APAChicagoHarvardIEEEMLATurabian Choose the citation style. Cuzán, A. G., & Bundrick, C. M. (1999). Fiscal policy as a forecasting factor in presidential elections. American Politics Quarterly, 27(3), 338-353. doi:10.1177/1532673X99027003004 Download PDF Fiscal policy as a forecasting factor in presidential elections Details Type Academic Journal Article Title Fiscal policy as a forecasting factor in presidential elections Contributor(s) Cuzán, Alfred G. (author)Bundrick, Charles M. (author) Located In American politics quarterly ISSN 0044-7803 Volume 27 Issue 3 Start Page 338 End Page 353 Date 1999 DOI 10.1177/1532673X99027003004 Abstract This research note presents a model in which fiscal policy, measured by changes in the ratio of federal outlays to gross national product between election years, is a factor in explaining and forecasting the outcome of the past 30 presidential elections. Compared with six forecasting models assembled in a special issue of this journal in the fall of 1996, the model performs satisfactorily. The model implies that to win reelection or extend his party's tenure in the White House, a president should reject a policy of fiscal expansion. It is hoped that this article will stimulate students of presidential elections to add policy variables to their forecasting models.