Early season NFL over/under bias

DiFilippo, Michael; Krieger, Kevin; Davis, Justin; Fodor, Andy

doi:10.1177/1527002512454544

Early season NFL over/under bias

DiFilippo, M., Krieger, K., Davis, J., & Fodor, A. (2014). Early season NFL over/under bias. Journal of Sports Economics, 15(2), 201-211. doi:10.1177/1527002512454544

Details

Type: Academic Journal Article
Title: Early season NFL over/under bias
Contributor(s): DiFilippo, Michael (author)
Krieger, Kevin (author)
Davis, Justin (author)
Fodor, Andy (author)
Located In: Journal of sports economics
ISSN: 1552-7794
Volume: 15
Issue: 2
Start Page: 201
End Page: 211
Date: 2014
DOI: 10.1177/1527002512454544
Abstract: Popular wisdom regarding athletics is that offenses are at a relative disadvantage in the early portion of seasons. The authors present evidence that this anecdotal belief holds true over the 2000-2010 National Football League (NFL) seasons. This is reflected in lower offensive yardage, fewer first downs, and fewer points scored. While total points scored are significantly lower in Week 1 of NFL seasons, bookmakers fail to reduce the total lines posted on these games. The authors find a strategy betting under total lines of all Week 1 games over the 2000-2010 NFL seasons yields a statistically significant return of 13.6% per game.
Subject(s): sports wagering
efficient markets
NFL
betting bias
PID: uwf:23044

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Early season NFL over/under bias