You are hereHome › College of Business (COB) › Department of Management & MIS › Davis, Justin › Early season NFL over/under bias Style APAChicagoHarvardIEEEMLATurabian Choose the citation style. DiFilippo, M., Krieger, K., Davis, J., & Fodor, A. (2014). Early season NFL over/under bias. Journal of Sports Economics, 15(2), 201-211. doi:10.1177/1527002512454544 Early season NFL over/under bias Details Title Early season NFL over/under bias Contributor(s) DiFilippo, Michael (author)Krieger, Kevin (author)Davis, Justin (author)Fodor, Andy (author) Located In Journal of sports economics ISSN 1552-7794 Date 2014 DOI 10.1177/1527002512454544 Abstract Popular wisdom regarding athletics is that offenses are at a relative disadvantage in the early portion of seasons. The authors present evidence that this anecdotal belief holds true over the 2000-2010 National Football League (NFL) seasons. This is reflected in lower offensive yardage, fewer first downs, and fewer points scored. While total points scored are significantly lower in Week 1 of NFL seasons, bookmakers fail to reduce the total lines posted on these games. The authors find a strategy betting under total lines of all Week 1 games over the 2000-2010 NFL seasons yields a statistically significant return of 13.6% per game. Subject(s) sports wageringefficient marketsNFLbetting bias