Predicting the results of the 2010 midterm elections: Judgment, econometrics, and prediction markets

Cuzán, Alfred G.

Predicting the results of the 2010 midterm elections

Cuzán, A. G. (2011). Predicting the results of the 2010 midterm elections: Judgment, econometrics, and prediction markets. Foresight, the International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 41-44.

Details

Title: Predicting the results of the 2010 midterm elections: Judgment, econometrics, and prediction markets
Contributor(s): Cuzán, Alfred G. (author)
Located In: Foresight, the international journal of applied forecasting
ISSN: 1555-9068
Date: 2011
Abstract: Alfred Cuzán offers his postmortem on forecasts made for the midterm elections for the U.S. House of Representatives. His evaluation compares the judgment of three experts, six statistical models, and one (betting) prediction market. It seems like the best political forecasts emerge when forecasters place their bets. However, this issue of Foresight contains a related article on corporate prediction markets (p. 35), where the challenges of implementation are arguably greater than those in election markets.